DescriptionRobust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP) The Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy conducts research in four main areas: * Improving the fidelity of models used to forecast the impact of policies on future economic and climatic conditions. Many of the most decision-relevant aspects of climate and energy policy - for example, climate impacts and technological advances - are poorly or not at all represented in current policy analysis tools. The Center will build representations of the most important processes and increase model detail and resolution. * Quantifying sensitivities and uncertainties in the parameters, processes, and impacts in models. RDCEP will develop methods to characterize the dependence of model output on input, parameter, and model uncertainty; incorporate these uncertainties in models; and study how to communicate probabilistic model output to decision makers. * Identifying robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The best policy is not necessarily that which produces the maximum return if all assumptions made are borne out, but the one that balances return and risk in the face of many uncertainties. The Center will develop models to identify robust strategies that perform well over a wide range of scenarios. * Developing improved computational methods and numerical methods required to achieve these goals. New parallel stochastic dynamic programming, robust optimal control, and numerical optimization methods able to make full use of modern supercomputers will allow tools developed at the Center to incorporate sectoral and process detail and explore uncertainty, in ways not previously possible.
OrganizationUniversity of Chicago
DepartmentComputation Institute
Sponsor Campus GridOSG Connect
Principal Investigator
Ian Foster
Field Of ScienceEconomics